The European Parliamentary Elections 2024: A Continent Divided
June 17, 2024
Every five years, the European Parliamentary Elections rock the geopolitical scene in Europe, as national political parties and coalitions within the European Parliament itself butt heads in significant political clashes between the ideological left, centre and right. Alongside the usual domestic political debates that take place within individual EU member states, what complicates matters further is that during the European Parliamentary Elections, not only do national governments have to continue addressing domestic issues within their own nations, as per usual, but they are also forced to address issues that affect the entire European Union. While playing politics within your own country is hectic enough, to play politics on a continental scale alongside and against parties and coalitions from other, foreign nations is a whole different ball game entirely. It is one thing to deal with political issues when you are debating and collaborating with other politicians within your own home country, but to do the same with politicians from foreign nations, often with vastly different sets of social, cultural and political values and internal issues of their own, is a challenge in its own right for any political leader, regardless of their level of experience. The European Parliamentary Elections of 2024 were no exception, and this year especially saw a very mixed bag of election results, with parties and coalitions representing the ideological left, centre and right all making respective gains and losses. Considering the ever-changing geopolitical situation in Europe today – not least against the backdrop of the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War – it is worth going into detail regarding the election results and what could come next following them, into an ever more uncertain future, not just for Europe, but for the wider world as we know it.
The Right Rises…Again
The 2010s saw an unprecedented surge in popularity for right-wing and even far-right political parties across Europe, with even non-parliamentary movements and independent organisations gaining popular support within their own respective home nations. This trend has continued into the 2020s, and has also, predictably, been reflected in the results for the political right in the European Parliamentary Elections of 2024.
As of the writing of this article, the official results – taken from the official website of the European Union – have shown a solid victory for the centre-right European People's Party (EPP), who now hold 186 seats and remain the biggest party in the European Parliament. The right-wing European Conservatives & Reformists (ECR), effectively led by Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni, enjoy 73 seats in the European Parliament, having also gained even more support than in 2019’s elections. The right-wing nationalist Identity & Democracy (ID), led by France’s own Marine Le Pen, also enjoyed a growth in support, compared to 2019, with 58 seats in the European Parliament.
Parties from across the political spectrum that do not belong to any political faction within the European Parliament have also enjoyed a surge in success at these elections, with the Non-Inscrits (NI) and others now taking up 100 seats for themselves. The Non-Inscrits faction is home to parties which have either willingly chosen not to join any existing European parliamentary faction or have instead been expelled from their previous ones. Many of these non-aligned MEPs are also often independent candidates, not representing any political party in their own home nations whatsoever.
The Left & Liberal Slump
Left-wing and liberal parties within the European Parliament tend to enjoy the most “love” and best “treatment” within the EU, due to their heavy pro-EU sentiment, but this time, these parties took a rather painful hit when it came to their results this year, further showing us that left-wing and liberal ideology appears to be losing its appeal to the wider European electorate.
The centre-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists & Democrats (S&D) remain the second-largest faction within the European Parliament, but still lose four seats, keeping a 135-seat presence, as of the writing of this article. The liberal Renew Europe were arguably the hardest hit of all of the factions within the European Parliament, losing 22 seats and now holding 79 seats. The Greens-European Free Alliance (Greens-EFA) also took a major hit to their presence, losing 19 seats and now holding onto 53 seats.
Many will inevitably ask the question “What happened?” for this surge in popularity for right-wing parties across large swathes of Europe. Many will undoubtedly bring up the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, the migrant crisis, the unstable European economy, the gradually increasing political repression by the European Union leadership and even the Israel-Palestine conflict as factors contributing to the success of the political right and the damaging of the left and centre. According to Vessela Tcherneva, Deputy Director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, the question of national security played a major role:
The wars in Ukraine and in Gaza, along with an ongoing economic crisis across the bloc – all of that contributes to a much more anxious climate, which also makes voters look for more security…And the far-right is promising them more security.
Tcherneva also believes that the election results are largely indicative of the overall domestic popularity of the candidates within their own respective home nations. This is crucial to note, if this is the case – which it most likely is – as several EU member states are due more national elections this year. These European Parliamentary Elections therefore serve as a powerful litmus test to see how each party could potentially perform in their own upcoming national elections.
Pains, Gains & Whys
Within individual EU member states, the elections arguably led to even more dramatic outcomes. In France, President Emmanuel Macron’s liberal Renaissance party (RE) were crushed by Marine Le Pen’s right-wing National Rally (RN), the latter of which gained around 30% of the vote, double that of RE. As a result, Macron immediately dissolved the French Parliament and called for a snap legislative election. The first round is due for the 30th June, with the second round due for the 7th July. As of the writing of this article, Marine Le Pen’s RN is ahead in the opinion polls, at 31%. The left-wing New Popular Front coalition (NFP) currently sits at 28%, while Macron’s liberal Ensemble coalition sits at 18%.
Commentators have claimed that the primary reason for Macron’s significant drop in popularity is his stance on the Russo-Ukrainian War and his efforts to seemingly make France the political – and possibly even military – vanguard against Russia’s operations in Ukraine. Alongside France’s strong support for Ukraine in terms of military, financial and humanitarian aid, Macron has also been seemingly thinking of himself as a new Napoleon, leading the charge – metaphorically speaking – at the helm of France against a new wartime Russia. If history is to serve its role as a lesson to us all, however, the last time that the French invaded Russia in 1812, during Napoleon’s ambitious – and ill-advised – campaign for further glory, it was the French who lost the campaign, and devastatingly so, with the near decimation of the French Army. These facts have not been lost on the French people, who generally do not wish to see France become a direct participant in the war in Ukraine against Russia, contrary to what Macron seemingly has in mind. Predictably, a French war against Russia would inevitably lead to countless numbers of French troops being killed and wounded, as well as very likely dragging the rest of NATO into a hot war against Russia, potentially sparking World War III.
While France struggles with its own domestic political issues, Germany also saw a crushing defeat for its own ruling party, with the centre-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) coming in third, with only 14% of the vote. The right-wing nationalist Alternative for Germany (AFD) secured its best European electoral result in its history, with 16% of the vote, while the centre-right alliance that is the Christian Democratic Union-Christian Social Union (CDU-CSU) came in at first place with 30% of the vote.
Regarding the factors which could have led to the poor results for the SPD, commentators have suggested that alongside the indecisive nature of the German Government regarding aid to Ukraine, internal issues such as ongoing mass migration from Africa and the Middle-East into Germany, as well as the ever-increasing crime rate as a result of the influx of these illegal migrants, are arguably the most significant factors leading to both the drop in popularity for the SPD and the dramatic rise in popularity for the right-wing nationalist AFD. Another likely factor is that a growing number of Germans are simply fed up with being demonised and often even persecuted by the German federal state for expressing patriotic and nationalist sentiment in their own country. Actual neo-Nazi sentiment in Germany today is very low in popularity, but much of the German establishment continues to associate simple German patriotism with outright neo-Nazism. This ideological association by the German federal state and general society has been hammered into the German psyche since 1945, ultimately leading to a very strong sense of self-imposed guilt for the crimes of the Nazis between 1933 – 1945. Through the decades, this sense of extreme self-guilt and national shame became reflected in German state policy, leading to the passing of laws and public programmes specifically designed to combat any and all sense of German patriotism and nationalism, due to ongoing societal fears of a new Nazi-like regime rising to power. The AFD is far from being neo-Nazi in its core ideology – for certainly not all forms of nationalism are neo-Nazi in nature – and a growing number of Germans are finally beginning to realise that maybe the institutionalised fears of a new Nazi regime might just be a little bit unfounded and overly exaggerated, and that perhaps a genuinely pro-German Germany might actually present some ideas as to how to definitively fix Germany, as opposed to continuing to damage the country in a never-ending cycle of guilt and repentance for the sins of the fathers (or, in this case, great-grandfathers).
Unlike Germany and France, Italy’s own ruling party continues to gain electoral success, with Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing nationalist Brothers of Italy party gaining around 30% of the vote.
It has commonly been suggested that Meloni’s success as Italy’s leader stems from the remarkable level of stability within Italian politics that she has created, as opposed to the instability that has so infamously plagued Italian politics in decades past. An effective leader domestically, Meloni has also enjoyed support due to her consistent stance on the conflict in Ukraine, promising to send as much aid to Ukraine as Italy can muster, while also being careful not to embroil Italy any deeper in the conflict than is necessary. This is in stark contrast to the almost pro-war sentiment of France’s Macron and Germany’s highly indecisive and almost incompetent Chancellor, Olaf Scholz. However, Meloni’s track record of tackling the migrant crisis in Italy has received a more mixed reception from the Italian public, as although she had promised to be heavy-handed against illegal migration into Italy, she has also handed out thousands of work visas to these very same illegal migrants, sometimes claiming that Italy needs a boost in its workforce, which has alienated and angered many unemployed native Italians. Recently, however, Meloni made an agreement with the Albanian Government to send thousands of illegal migrants from Italy to Albania, to then see them housed in newly built asylum centres in the latter country.
In Hungary, Viktor Orban’s right-wing nationalist Fidesz party received a very significant 44% of the vote. However, this was also the party’s worst ever result in a European election. This is interesting to note because if 44% is Fidesz’s worst ever result in a European election, that is still almost half of the Hungarian electorate voting for that one party alone, against numerous other parties in Hungary. While opponents of Orban will see these results as a positive sign for them – certainly hoping to see Hungary eventually turn away from its nationalist and anti-EU path and towards a more liberal and pro-EU one – supporters of Orban will see these results as a sign that a significant number of Hungarians wish to continue seeing their country on their current nationalistic path. Observers have also noted that Orban’s continued popularity is the result of his non-interventionist policies regarding the conflict in Ukraine. Opposing both continued sanctions against Russia as well as increased military aid for Ukraine to strengthen the latter’s war effort, Orban continues to defy both the EU and NATO, instead seeking a lasting, peaceful resolution to the war in Ukraine. Naturally, of course, this stance goes against the pro-war rhetoric of the EU and NATO, thus leading to a further increase in Orban’s unpopularity within these two blocs, both of which Hungary is a member of.
Most recently, the EU has declared that Hungary is to be fined 200 million Euros for refusing to accept its so-called “fair share” of illegal migrants, as part of a new quota system devised by the EU in order to distribute among its member states the waves of illegal migrants flooding into Europe on a yearly basis. Alongside the base 200 million Euro fine, the EU has also declared that Hungary will be required to pay 1 million Euros per day for as long as it continues to refuse accepting illegal migrants into Hungary. There is very little doubt that such a demand by the EU, with its total lack of regard for Hungary’s own national sovereignty, will galvanise the anti-EU population of Hungary and will only serve to increase Viktor Orban’s popularity more so than ever.
The EU Staring Into the Abyss
Many commentators have predicted that the success of right-wing parties in the European elections could potentially mean that various policies passed by the EU itself could very well unravel and fall apart in various sectors. These include sectors such as climate change, immigration and foreign policy (specifically the war in Ukraine). Regarding climate change, such policies would revolve more so around the supporting of the agricultural sector and the farmers’ strikes across Europe, as opposed to actual environmental issues, such as pollution, etc. Immigration will most certainly be major factor when it comes to the future of the right-wing within the European Parliament, as anti-immigration sentiment spikes across the entire continent, further leading to ideological clashes between the left, centre and right, with the former two being in favour of immigration, for a variety of reasons. As far as the right is concerned, the increasing crime rates and demographic changes directly connected to mass immigration will be at the forefront of both domestic and European debates for years to come. Foreign policy will be an especially divisive area for the European right in general, as there even exists within right-wing circles much heated debate over the extent of anti-EU sentiment, contribution to NATO and the extent of aid and support to Ukraine in its war against Russia.
As we have seen above in this article, far too many factors are at play at once when it comes to the maelstrom that is the European geopolitical scene, but if we can take anything away from the European Parliamentary Elections this year, it is this – contrary to what the European Union likes to parrot on a weekly basis, Europe is not a united continent, and it never truly has been. This has been a fact in the past, still is in the present and will continue to be so in the future. Although the EU has vowed to remain united against Russia and its ongoing war effort in Ukraine, the very opposite scenario appears to be taking place instead. Vladimir Putin’s long-term aim to cripple European unity and strengthen Russia’s geopolitical position on the continent and the wider world appears to be becoming a reality at a faster pace than many in the West could have imagined at the start of Putin’s Special Military Operation on the 24th February 2022.